OPEC+ increases oil production for a third straight month, potentially adding 1.4 million b/d by July, as key members push to unwind cuts faster despite risks to oil prices.

For the third straight month, OPEC+ is ramping up its oil production, marking a clear pivot in the alliance’s strategy as it moves faster than expected to restore supply previously held back by voluntary cuts.
In a coordinated decision led by eight key members—including Saudi Arabia and Russia—the group will increase output by 411,000 barrels per day (b/d) in July. With this, the bloc could collectively bring back around 1.4 million b/d of crude to the global market between April and July.
While actual production may fall short of that headline number due to some countries already exceeding their quotas, the new wave of supply is here to test oil price resilience. Brent crude has been under pressure, with price volatility intensifying due to broader economic uncertainty and geopolitical shifts, including trade tensions involving the U.S.
“OPEC+ isn’t just opening the taps—it’s tearing up the script,” said Jorge León of Rystad Energy.” May sent a warning, June confirmed it. Now, July feels like they’re going full throttle.”

What’s Driving the Rapid Reversal?

This production rebound marks a significant shift from the bloc’s stance since 2022, when it introduced multiple cuts to bolster prices. Initially, OPEC+ implemented a 2 million b/d group-wide reduction, with an additional 1.65 million b/d voluntarily cut by eight countries. A further 2.2 million b/d voluntary reduction followed, but it’s this last tranche that’s now being steadily unwound.
Originally, the roadmap called for restoring these volumes gradually—around 137,000 b/d per month—over a period stretching into late 2026. However, the pace of output recovery now suggests that the group may fully unwind these cuts by September 2025, a full year ahead of schedule.
At the core of this acceleration is Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. He has reportedly grown frustrated with the lack of discipline among member countries, some of which—like Kazakhstan—have consistently exceeded their agreed quotas. Despite efforts to enforce compliance, such as revising overproduction compensation plans, some members have signaled no intention to scale back. Kazakhstan, for example, recently told OPEC it would not reduce output, according to Russian news agency Interfax.

Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Shift

Riyadh’s own production has dropped sharply in recent years—down by about 20% to around 9 million b/d, the lowest level since 2011 (excluding pandemic lows). With that in mind, Saudi Arabia is now eager to recover lost ground. Of the 2.2 million b/d being unwound, nearly half—1 million b/d—comes from Saudi capacity.
Several analysts point to a pragmatic shift in Saudi strategy. With prices not responding as hoped to extended cuts, the Kingdom is opting to maximize revenue through volume instead. Some believe there’s also a political angle: recent warmer ties between Saudi Arabia and the U.S., particularly under Donald Trump, may have encouraged the Kingdom to help keep oil prices in check.

What’s Next for the Oil Market?

With the July increase, the market is now looking ahead: will OPEC+ continue this momentum and begin unwinding the second voluntary cut of 1.65 million b/d?
That round of cuts wasn’t expected to be touched until 2027. But now, with prices holding up better than expected and OPEC+ members increasingly eager to reclaim market share, some observers believe the group may revisit its entire production ceiling much sooner.
“This wasn’t supposed to happen so soon,” said León. “But with discipline breaking down and political motives in play, the group may rework its strategy faster than anyone anticipated.”
In short, OPEC+ does not aim for a slow return to pre-cut production levels. The push to restore output—driven by economics, politics, and internal tensions—could reshape the oil market trajectory over the next 12–18 months. For energy traders, analysts, and policymakers alike, the message is clear: expect more supply, and possibly, more price instability ahead.